Netanyahu's Ace: Why Israel Would Kill Hamas Leaders in Beirut Now

The killing of senior Hamas officials in what was believed to be an Israeli attack in Beirut on Tuesday had repercussions across the Middle East. Although many people have been killed every day for almost three months now, the latest targeted killings have sent shockwaves, reopening old wounds and fueling fears of an escalation of the conflict.

Among the victims of the surgical strike were also senior Hamas leaders. The most prominent was Saleh al-Arouri, former leader of the Qassam Brigades and member of Hamas' political bureau, who coordinated the group's military and political activities outside the Gaza Strip and garnered political and financial support. Born in the West Bank, Al-Arouri would have been one of the most popular Hamas leaders in the Fatah-run parts of Palestine, and his reputation may have grown after October 7.

High-ranking military commanders Samir Findi and Azzam al-Aqraa were also killed, along with four other officers.

The assassination showed all the signs of classic Israeli long-range elimination of high-value human targets. Al-Arouri and his companions were killed in an attack that uncovered a second-floor apartment on the street, flanked on both sides by eight-story buildings. The action bears striking similarities to the assassination of Ahmad Yassin, one of the founders of Hamas and the group's spiritual leader, who was eliminated on a Gaza street by a modified anti-tank missile.

Times and technology change, as do Israeli capabilities. To kill Sheikh Yassin in 2004, an Apache AH-64 armored anti-tank helicopter had to come within 2 km (1.2 miles). The same task is now being accomplished by quieter, smaller, harder-to-hear-and-see unmanned drones, as well as a new generation of missiles. The combination used undetected in Beirut was an Israeli-built system – a Hermes drone and a Nimrod missile. The attack also brought back unpleasant memories of previous incursions and military actions in Beirut that Israel carried out with impunity. One of the most notorious secret killings occurred 50 years ago, in April 1973, when an Israeli commando landed on the beach in Beirut and killed three senior Palestinian leaders.

The Israeli team also included future Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who wore the dress and makeup of a young blonde woman. Along with Tuesday's assassination, the main target was the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) military leader for the West Bank, Kamal Adwan.

Israel benefited for years from this campaign, dubbed “Youth Spring,” because it polarized Lebanon so much that it led to the resignation of Prime Minister Saeb Salam, followed by armed clashes between pro-Palestinian factions. and their opponents and by a general collapse of power. the political and security situation. Over two years of growing distrust, broken promises, false loyalties, and infighting, Lebanon descended into a bloody and exhausting civil war that would not end until 1990.

Israel used the internal conflict for its purposes, fomenting the war, arming its proxies, and encouraging and aiding massacres such as those of Sabra and Shatila in 1982.

Examples from the past are scary, but history doesn't always have to repeat itself, especially for those who learn from the past.

The first questions an analyst asks himself are: why him, why now, and what will happen next?
“Why him” is in some ways a debatable question, but it should be asked anyway. In principle, Israel wants to eliminate as many senior Hamas officials as possible, probably with even more determination after October 7. Al-Arouri was a very senior, influential, and capable Hamas official, and differed from the rest of the top leaders in that he was said to have an independent mind.

After living for a long time outside Palestine, in Turkey and Lebanon, he developed his own contacts and international network. Israel, with its generally excellent intelligence services, must have been aware of his capabilities and perhaps his plans, which are still publicly unknown.

If al-Arouri had been killed for any political reason, this would likely include his close and frequent physical contact with Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and the numerous Iranian political and military representatives present in south Beirut. As a trusted partner, he probably worked with them daily. In this role, it will be difficult for Hamas to replace him immediately.

“Why now” is probably the key question. There is no doubt that Israel immediately knew it was moving to Beirut in 2015 after years of resettlement; Although all Hamas leaders maintain tight security measures, they were certainly more lax before October 7 and there would have been many opportunities to assassinate him earlier.

Hezbollah and its protector and patron, Iran, showed remarkable political restraint and patience in not rushing to attack Israel after the latter began bombing and then attacking Gaza. Initially, Israel had to consider the possibility that Hezbollah would open a second front, but after almost three months of relative calm in the north, Israeli forces took the liberty of demobilizing five brigades, apparently convinced that Hezbollah, whatever he ever has to fight in the future, it will be on the Strip.

But many Israeli politicians, generals, and influential figures have warned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with the generals. Rather, he may believe that continuing the war is in his immediate interest.

“Netanyahu’s government does not want this war to end. “Politically, Netanyahu has a big problem the day after the end of the war, because then the investigations into the failures on the Israeli side will begin,” warned former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy a few days ago.

If you fear the end of the war, why not postpone it, or prolong it? Why not open another front in the North, have more men and women in uniform, continue to run the country on a war footing, and prevent citizens and politicians from asking uncomfortable questions? Why not take advantage of the opportune moment to prolong the atmosphere in which far-right politicians like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich can continue to promote extreme views such as the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the resettlement of Israelis?

All of this is consistent with the Israeli prime minister's behavior, say veteran Netanyahu watchers.

The big question now is whether Hezbollah will take the bait. A high-level Iranian delegation, including several generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is said to have flown to Beirut on Wednesday. Nasrallah reportedly canceled his previously announced speech for Thursday and released a recorded speech on Wednesday in which he repeated his usual warnings to Hezbollah's enemies, but without revealing any concrete decisions.

Now he is almost certainly consulting with his Iranian allies on Hezbollah's definitive response to the Beirut killings.

From those meetings, the answer to the question “what happens next” could emerge.