Will Modi's BJP triumph in the crucial election test for Delhi?

In the scorching heat of a New Delhi afternoon, hundreds of individuals, both men and women, congregated in a sprawling open space adjacent to the Yamuna river in northeast Delhi. As the crowd swelled, a cloud of dust enveloped the area, prompting attendees to shield their faces with cotton towels and scarves as they made their way through multiple layers of security checks toward a temporary tent. Their purpose? To witness India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, vying for a third term in the ongoing general elections, as he prepared to address the gathered crowd.

Azaad, who chooses to go by his first name only, was among the throngs of attendees cheering for Modi. When asked about his support, Azaad cited the prime minister's popularity and swiftly listed the benefits of his flagship schemes: 5 kilograms of free food rations for impoverished families, medical insurance coverage of up to 500,000 rupees ($6,000), and easier access to a cooking gas connection.

However, Azaad, a member of the historically disadvantaged Balmiki caste, which is traditionally associated with sanitation work under India's intricate caste system, also reflected on his unfulfilled aspirations over the past decade of Modi's governance.

"I wanted to purchase a motorbike and start a small grocery shop. But due to financial constraints caused by unemployment and inflation, I have been unable to do either," he lamented. Azaad currently works as a sanitation worker with Delhi's municipal corporation.

As Modi's helicopter appeared in the sky, Azaad joined a group of men chanting praises to the Hindu deity Ram in unison, echoing slogans associated with the PM's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seemingly setting aside his past disappointments.

As Delhi gears up to vote on May 25 in the penultimate phase of the Indian elections, it is the loyalty of supporters like Azaad that is being put to the test. Although the national capital comprises only seven parliamentary seats, its significance far surpasses that, being considered the "political power center of India," as stated by Tanvir Aeijaz, associate professor in the department of political science at Ramjas College, University of Delhi.

For the BJP, these seven seats have long been indicative of its national prospects. Even before the party ascended to power on a national level, Delhi stood as a bastion for the Hindu-majority BJP. Since 1989, the party has failed to secure a majority of the city's parliamentary seats only twice – in 2004 and 2009. On both occasions, the party also faced defeats on a national scale.

On the preceding Saturday, a week prior to Delhi's upcoming vote where Azaad was fervently supporting Modi, another contingent of voters navigated through rows of meticulously arranged chairs, gathering 16 kilometers (10 miles) away at a playground in northwest Delhi's Ashok Vihar.

Among them were individuals eagerly awaiting the arrival of Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of India's inaugural prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the prominent figure of the Congress party, India's primary opposition party.

Zikr Ullah, an Urdu teacher in his mid-30s, expressed dismay at the increasing religious polarization in the country. He criticized Modi and the BJP for allegedly exacerbating the divide along religious lines, referencing some of the PM's recent remarks that appeared to target the Muslim community during his election campaign.

"It's highly unlikely for the BJP to secure seats in Delhi this time. There's significant anger among the populace regarding unemployment and inflation. Their living conditions haven't improved in the past decade," Ullah remarked on Saturday.

The following morning, Arjun Singh Meena, a farmer from Vidisha, a district in central India's Madhya Pradesh, arrived in Delhi and headed straight to the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) headquarters near the city center. The AAP, which is part of the Congress-led national opposition alliance known as INDIA, governs the city-state of Delhi.

Meena expressed dismay over the crackdown on opposition leaders by central agencies under the Modi government ahead of the elections. "This isn't how a country should be governed. Everyone deserves a fair chance," he stated.

Meena had come to support Delhi chief minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, a former anti-corruption activist turned politician, who was the latest among opposition leaders to be imprisoned on March 21.

Kejriwal faces corruption allegations in a liquor policy-related case by India's top federal investigative agency for financial crimes. He denies these allegations, with the AAP and the INDIA alliance accusing the BJP of conducting a witch-hunt against them. On May 10, India's Supreme Court granted Kejriwal temporary bail to allow him to campaign in the election. He is required to surrender and return to jail on June 2, a day after the final phase of India's elections.

Over the past decade, AAP has been a dominant force in Delhi's political landscape. It won 28 out of 70 seats in the state legislature in the 2013 elections, then nearly swept the state elections in 2015 and 2020, securing more than 60 seats each time. However, during this period, it failed to secure even one national parliament seat from Delhi, with the BJP winning all seven seats in 2014 and 2019, bolstered by Modi's popularity.

This phenomenon of Indian voters making different choices for state and national governance isn't unique to Delhi. But in 2024, both the AAP and the Congress claim there's a distinction: In 2014 and 2019, the two parties contested against each other as well as against the BJP in a triangular contest.

This time, they have formed an alliance, with AAP contesting four of Delhi's seats and the Congress contesting the remaining three.

With the consolidated opposition against the BJP, Shama Mohamed, national spokesperson of the Congress, emphasizes that "the opposition votes will no longer be divided." She notes an anti-incumbency sentiment prevailing across India, including Delhi, citing concerns such as unemployment and inflation. Mohamed also accuses the BJP of undermining democracy, alleging that the ruling party has compromised independent institutions and suppressed critics, a claim the BJP refutes.

Delhi boasts a diverse electorate of over 14.72 million voters from various backgrounds. While upscale areas like Defence Colony and Golf Links host the city's elite, it also accommodates over 1,800 unauthorized settlements and numerous slums, housing a significant portion of Delhi's population. Additionally, the central region of the city features well-maintained avenues where politicians, bureaucrats, judges, and industrialists reside in colonial-era bungalows.

The city's influence extends beyond its borders due to its status as a political hub. Lawmakers elected from Delhi maintain close proximity to the union government and foster political connections, underscoring its importance as a barometer of national sentiment.

Delhi's significance is further magnified by its diverse population, with the city being a melting pot of people from across the country. It ranks second in inter-state migration in India, hosting over 6.3 million migrants, many of whom have become eligible voters in Delhi over time.

Sandeep Pathak, a close aide to Kejriwal, shares Mohamed's optimism about impending change, citing Kejriwal's recent arrest and subsequent release on bail as rallying points for the party and the opposition alliance.

Despite the united front presented by the opposition, BJP leaders remain confident of the party's prospects in Delhi. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured 57 percent of the city's votes. This year, the party has introduced new faces in a bid to combat anti-incumbency sentiment.

RP Singh, national spokesperson of the BJP, dismisses concerns about internal divisions within the opposition, pointing to dissent within sections of the Congress regarding the alliance with AAP. Singh predicts a resounding victory for the BJP, confident of winning not only the city's seven seats but also securing over 60 percent of the votes when results are announced on June 4.

Should the BJP emerge victorious in Delhi, it would likely signify broader national success, in line with its historical performance and legacy.