China aims to Undermine US Dominance, Targeting its Vulnerabilities with Precision.

The well-known saying "Even paranoids have real enemies" is attributed to a prominent historical figure. It suggests that suspicions of conspiracy, even if excessive, may sometimes be grounded in reality. Therefore, the reactions of British and American observers to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visits to France, Hungary, and Serbia are, to some extent, justified.

During his visit last week, President Xi received warm receptions in all three European countries, prompting nervous reactions from the US and Britain. China is perceived as exploiting divisions within the West, particularly by targeting France, Germany, and other EU states as potential weak links in the broader Western coalition aimed at preserving its global hegemony.

While such a rift may not fatally undermine the US position in Western Europe, it could present diplomatic challenges given the already strained nature of US diplomacy, marked by numerous discrepancies in its positions.

Despite Beijing's insistence in public statements and private communications that it does not seek to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, its actions suggest otherwise. Nonetheless, any efforts by China to sow doubt within the Western alliance should be welcomed, even if it raises concerns among some Russian observers.

China's actions stem from various intentions, assumptions, and its particular perspective on global politics. Firstly, Beijing seeks to postpone direct conflict with the US and its allies, which is fundamentally rooted in competition for access to resources and markets. Additionally, the status of Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint, with the US supporting its de facto independence.

From the perspective of Western Europeans, involvement in the US-China confrontation holds little appeal, and they generally prefer to avoid it. They perceive it as potentially leading to a reduced US presence in Europe, shifting the burden of countering Russia to European allies. Simultaneously, Paris and Berlin see an opportunity to enhance their influence within the Western sphere and pursue a gradual normalization of relations with Moscow, despite facing numerous constraints.

Based on this pattern of behavior, Beijing appears to hold the belief that the more uncertain Western Europe's stance is, the longer Washington will delay launching a decisive offensive against China. This aligns with China's primary strategy – to weaken the US without engaging in direct armed conflict, which Chinese authorities rightly fear.

Secondly, severing or even significantly reducing Beijing's economic ties with Western Europe would undoubtedly impact the locals, but it would pose an even greater threat to China's economic stability and prosperity. Currently, the EU stands as China's second-largest foreign economic partner, with particular emphasis on continental heavyweights such as Germany, France, and Italy, alongside contributions from the Netherlands as a European transport hub. China's relations with these nations are described as robust, with reciprocal visits often culminating in the signing of new investment and trade agreements.

The erosion or severance of ties with Western Europe presents a substantial risk to the Chinese economy, which has been pivotal in ensuring the populace's welfare, a paramount achievement for Chinese authorities since the 1970s. Beijing is unwilling to jeopardize this support base and source of national pride, especially considering the reluctance of Western European countries to fully align with US-led sanctions campaigns, as evidenced in their approach to sanctions against Russia. The Chinese leadership perceives that major EU countries are unlikely to willingly sever economic ties with China. Additionally, in countries like Serbia, where President Xi received a particularly grand reception, there's an opportunity for China to gain political influence as an alternative to the West, especially given Serbia's lack of prospects for joining the EU or NATO.

Thirdly, China genuinely believes in the central role of economics in global politics. Despite its deep-rooted historical background, Chinese foreign policy culture is heavily influenced by Marxist ideology, which prioritizes the economic base over the political superstructure. This perspective is reinforced by China's political ascension on the global stage in recent decades, driven by its economic prosperity and self-generated wealth.

Despite economic success not directly resolving significant international issues such as the Taiwan question or territorial disputes, Chinese diplomacy's increasing influence is widely acknowledged. This sentiment resonates strongly with ordinary Chinese citizens, whose confidence in their country's bright future shapes national foreign policy. Consequently, Beijing is confident that deepening economic ties with the EU represents the most effective means to persuade its leading powers to restrain what China perceives as the US's adventurist policies.

What are the objectives of Western Europeans in their dealings with China? The dynamics vary. For Germany and France, China's economic trajectory holds significance. Meanwhile, smaller nations visited by Xi Jinping seek Chinese investments to counterbalance the influence of Brussels and Washington. In Hungary, China's economic presence has historically been notable.

From a political perspective, China represents another strategic move for France as it navigates between complete alignment with the US and a degree of independence. It's unlikely that Paris anticipates significant support from China regarding the Ukrainian crisis, nor does it rely on Beijing to exert substantial influence over Moscow. Nevertheless, meetings and negotiations with the Chinese leader are viewed in Paris as diplomatic leverage. Similarly, as Kazakhstan views engagements with the West or China as negotiating assets with Russia, Paris seeks to maintain a delicate balance without antagonizing the US, mindful of potential repercussions. However, asserting a degree of independence remains a priority.

It could be argued that for Russia, these developments pose neither foreign policy challenges nor threats to its position. Relations between Moscow and Beijing haven't reached a stage where either side engages in significant intrigues against the other. Moreover, from a tactical perspective, slowing down competition and the escalation toward conflict between China and the West might even be beneficial. Russia has no interest in witnessing a collapse of the global economy or in seeing China divert all its resources towards countering an American offensive.