Could Cyprus become embroiled in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?

On June 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a warning to Cyprus that it could become a target if it assisted Israel in attacking Lebanon. Israel has indicated its approval for a potential offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with its foreign minister suggesting an imminent decision on whether to go to war.

Hezbollah recently released drone footage purportedly over Israeli territory, demonstrating its capability and implying a threat.

Should Israel declare war on Lebanon, the implications for Cyprus are significant:

Would Cyprus support Israel?

Cyprus typically allows Israel to use its airspace for military exercises but has stated it will remain neutral and avoid involvement in any conflict, despite having UK military bases that have been utilized for operations in the region.

Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, sees Cyprus's neutrality as a strategic victory for Hezbollah, indicating European reluctance to support Israeli military actions.

Potential Economic Impact on Cyprus

An attack could severely harm Cyprus economically, which has previously faced opposition to its policy of allowing military use of its territory during conflicts.

Security Concerns and Refugee Influx

Even if Cyprus avoids direct involvement, it could face challenges such as a potential influx of refugees from Lebanon, exacerbating existing concerns over asylum seekers arriving from Lebanon's shores.

Psychological Warfare and International Pressure

Nasrallah's warnings to Cyprus are seen as part of psychological warfare, aimed at dissuading Israel from expanding the conflict and prompting international pressure against Israeli military escalation.

Regional Instability

The fear persists that any escalation between Hezbollah and Israel could spiral into broader regional conflict, impacting countries like Cyprus and prompting international efforts to prevent such escalation.

These dynamics underscore the precarious situation Cyprus faces amid escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.