Trump Edges Out Harris Among Arab Americans, Poll Reveals

A Shift in Support Amid Global Turmoil

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, a new poll indicates that Donald Trump is gaining ground among Arab American voters, presenting a potential challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris. The Arab News/YouGov poll, released this week, shows Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 45% to 43%. This trend signals a worrying shift for Democrats, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which appears to be affecting support within this influential demographic.

Key Issues Affecting Arab American Voters

The poll highlights critical concerns for Arab Americans, with 29% identifying the Israel-Palestine conflict as their primary issue, surpassing the 21% who cited economic concerns and the 13% who pointed to racism and discrimination. Furthermore, respondents expressed a preference for Trump when it comes to resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, with 39% believing he would handle it better compared to 33% for Harris. Both candidates are tied at 38% regarding who would be more beneficial for the Middle East as a whole.

Despite Trump's lead, he is viewed as more aligned with Israel's current government than Harris, indicating a complex relationship with the Arab American community. The poll's results, derived from a sample of 500 Arab Americans, come with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93%.

Implications for Democrats Ahead of the Election

This trend poses significant implications for the Democratic party, especially as President Joe Biden’s support for Israel's actions in Gaza may be jeopardizing Harris’s chances in the upcoming November 5 election. A previous poll by the Arab American Institute revealed a close race, with Trump and Harris nearly tied at 42% and 41%, respectively. Notably, Harris’s support is 18 points lower among Arab Americans compared to Biden's standing in 2020.

Michigan emerges as a crucial battleground state due to its large Arab American population, particularly in cities like Dearborn, which is known as the first Arab-majority city in the United States. The state is expected to play a pivotal role in determining the election outcome, having been won by Biden in 2020 by approximately 150,000 votes, while Trump had a narrow victory of around 11,000 votes in 2016.

Trump's Strategic Outreach to Arab American Voters

In a bid to secure support from Muslim and Arab American constituents, Trump has recently criticized Harris for her appearances alongside Republican Liz Cheney in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He asserted on his Truth Social platform that if Harris is re-elected, the Middle East will face decades of turmoil, declaring, “If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames.” He urged voters to select Trump for peace, positioning himself as a stabilizing force in contrast to Harris.

While Trump has engaged with Muslim communities, he simultaneously touts his pro-Israel stance, claiming to be the most supportive U.S. leader for Israel in history. His assertion that Israel’s existence depends on his re-election further complicates his relationship with Arab American voters, who are grappling with the implications of U.S. foreign policy in the region.

Conclusion

As the election date nears, the shifting dynamics among Arab American voters present a daunting challenge for the Democratic campaign. With Trump gaining traction and a complex array of issues at play, Harris must address these concerns effectively to maintain support in this vital voting bloc.