Harvest, drugs and votes: India's breadbasket votes at the end of major elections

The final round of voting for India's general election will take place on June 1, deciding whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win a third term. Punjab will vote in 13 of the 543 seats in the national assembly. It is India's breadbasket and home to the Sikh faith, a reformist religious group with 30 million people worldwide, including 24 million in India.

For the first time in nearly three decades, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not contest the Punjab election as part of an alliance. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), a century-old regional party with roots in rural Sikhism and a former National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ally, has decided to contest the election alone. The government's decision comes amid anger in rural Punjab against the central government that has led to two farmer protests in 2021 and earlier this year.

Farmers had been demanding minimum guaranteed prices for 23 crops. While the farmers' unresolved demands are the main issue, there is a second problem bubbling beneath the surface. People in Punjab are deeply disillusioned with what they see as politicians' inaction in the face of a drug addiction epidemic that has claimed 266 lives between 2020 and 2023.

Drug Addiction in Punjab

Take, for example, Jaspreet Kaur (60), whose husband is a farmer and who lost her 30-year-old son to a drug overdose last year. "Whoever comes to power promises to eradicate drug addiction among young people, but nothing will be done if he comes to power," Kaul told RT. "I lost my son, and many others have experienced this tragedy. We have almost no hope.

" For her and others like her, drug overdoses are the main problem. "Farmers and families whose young children have fallen into the trap of drugs are in a hopeless situation," she says. "Enough is enough."

It's a double tragedy, as the family's other concern is agriculture. Her husband has been cultivating wheat and rice on their four-acre farm for most of his life, but now he struggles to make a living. "Even when we harvest, we get less profit. Our debts are mounting and we don't know how to deal with losses and hardships," Kaul says. Farming has become risky and unprofitable for most families in Punjab, she says.

Though the BJP has had a majority in India since 2014, it has struggled to gain a foothold in Punjab's competitive political landscape. It won just two seats in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019, but only because of its alliance with the SAD.  No electoral cooperation with Akali Dal 

Without the SAD, the Bharatiya Janata Party alone bears the brunt of the farmers' deep anger. Farmer unions have sabotaged the Bharatiya Janata Party's election campaign by refusing to allow candidates entry into villages and calling for boycotts, which is likely to damage the party's reach in rural areas that are crucial for its solo election campaign. Echoing the frustration, Jagmeet Sandhu (45), a farmer from Bathinda, said, "There is a lot of discontent among farmers and it will become clear once people vote." The state is ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which came to power with a landslide majority in 2022. But he faces challenges in this election, with dissatisfaction over broken election promises and rising drug addiction.

Even though they are members of the rebel I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance), the AAP and the Congress Party are rivals in Punjab. While the AAP claims to have achieved a lot in the past two years, not everyone is happy with its performance.

"Our government has done a great job in the past two years," said Malvinder Singh Kang, AAP candidate from Anandpur Sahib constituency. "We have created 43,000 jobs and, importantly, the jobs were merit-based. We have provided electricity to people free of cost."

Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has been leading the AAP campaign and has sought public sympathy following the arrest of AAP chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. The party has accused the Modi government of undermining democracy and the Constitution.

Congress adopts two-pronged anti-incumbency stance

Experts say the Congress is in a strong position and is using its anti-incumbency stance against both the AAP in the state and the BJP in New Delhi. The party has supported the 2020 farmer uprisings and the ongoing protests on the Punjab-Haryana border, which form a key part of the party's strategy.

"The Bharatiya Janata Party government has violated the foundations of the Constitution," Congress leader Vijay Inder Singla said. "The Congress is fighting hard to save democracy and secularism, so the people should vote for Congress to topple the Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government."

Last week in Amritsar, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi promised farmers that the party would waive their debts. The Congress has also promised to provide legal guarantees on minimum support prices (MSP) and is looking to build on its 2019 performance in which it won eight seats. 

"This is not a one-off as the party will look into the financial situation of farmers," Gandhi said, accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party of not doing anything for farmers in the past decade. "If farmers in this country demand debt relief, the Bloc government will give it up. Not just once, but again and again." 

The SAD is looking to regain its political presence after heavy defeats in the 2017 and 2022 state elections. Hence, its focus on its commitment to Sikh principles and its "pro-Punjab" stance. "If we get the mandate of the people, we will bring in a law to ensure that jobs in Punjab are reserved only for Punjabi youth," SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal said, just one of many pro-Punjabi promises.

Modi's long-term strategy

The risk the BJP is taking by going it alone is also an attempt to expand its electoral influence beyond Hindu-majority urban areas. 

"For every Indian, Punjab is an important state with a history of making valuable contributions to the country's development," Modi said in a recent interview. "So, our party cannot remain silent while the people are disgruntled." It is our duty to work harder than ever and ensure that our people are not left unhappy.

The Prime Minister said that the people of Punjab were very disillusioned in 2022 and gave a mandate to the AAP, which made things even worse.  "We appeal to the people with a vision and a track record of good governance. We are reaching out to the people with one objective - the welfare of Punjab," PM Modi said.

Kiranjit Kaur, a Chandigarh-based activist working on farmer suicides, told RT that come June 1, voters will have several issues in mind.

"The agrarian crisis remains a major ongoing issue," she said, adding that the second major issue is drugs. "We have seen many governments in the past promising to end the menace within months, but that has not happened and people are angry. So many young people are dying of drug overdoses," she says. "The electorate in Punjab thinks differently and it is difficult to say what the voters are thinking," she says. "This time they will vote wisely and independent candidates are also strong in some places. AAP is not such a big favourite." People are angry about what has happened in the past five months. That could benefit the Congress.”

Gurshamshail Singh, a journalist and analyst from Punjab, has a similar view. He said the Punjab elections are important because “Modi’s magic hasn’t worked for the past 10 years.”

“Punjab elections are important because it is a border state where the Sikh minority is in the majority,” Singh said. “This is the first time that there will be an election contest between four parties. There are also independent candidates who enjoy support, such as separatist Sikh leaders.”

He added that the BJP faces resistance wherever it campaigns. "This is an agrarian state so the opinion of farmers matters," Singh said. "There are also non-Sikhs in the city who support the Bharatiya Janata Party. It was once in alliance with the SAD but its chances of winning the elections seem slim. At least she has fielded candidates and is fighting independently. We are focused on strengthening our position in Punjab," Singh said, adding that the Congress is the choice of all anti-Modi parties. "The anti-Modi vote will be partly split between the Congress and independent politicians. The AAP is hoping that free services like free electricity will give it an electoral advantage."