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  • 09 May, 2024

US intelligence believes the IDF would be spread too thin if it tried to fight on two fronts.

The Israeli military is "unlikely to succeed" in a two-front war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Washington Post reported on Sunday, citing a confidential assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Washington.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been engaged in fighting with Hezbollah militants since the war against Hamas began in October.

Such interactions were limited until recently, when Hezbollah fired rockets at an Israeli intelligence base on Saturday in response to Israel's killing of a Hamas leader in Beirut days earlier.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to radically change the security situation on the border with Lebanon, but US officials have warned him against opening a second front, the Washington Post reported.

"If this were to happen, a new confidential assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) found that Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military and resources would struggle to succeed because the conflict is spread too thinly across Israel.” two unidentified officials, referring to the confidential DIA report.

The Israeli military is relatively small in peacetime and relies on reserves to bolster its forces in times of conflict. The IDF called up about 360,000 reservists when the war against Hamas broke out, but a senior Israeli official told Reuters last week that an undisclosed number would soon be demobilized.

During this backlash, Hezbollah has been open about its role in the conflict. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in November that his forces had tied up about a third of Israeli troops along the Israel-Lebanon border and prevented them from deploying into the Gaza Strip.

"The ongoing conflict between the ISF and Hezbollah has created fear, anticipation, fear and consternation among the political and military leaders of the enemies," he added.

Several US officials told the Washington Post that they fear Netanyahu will attack Hezbollah to save his political career.

The Israeli leader faced widespread protests before the war began and was later criticized for failing to prevent Hamas attacks that killed nearly 1,200 Israelis.

The paper said a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon would exceed the bloodshed of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war because Hezbollah has far more long-range precision weapons.

Behind. Missile attacks were launched against Israel's petrochemical plants and nuclear reactors. Washington is also concerned that such a conflict could involve Iran, Hezbollah's main backer, and ultimately involve the United States, sources told the newspaper.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Jordan on Sunday ahead of a trip to Israel, the West Bank, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. "We are very focused on preventing the escalation of this conflict," he said ahead of a meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah II and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi.