Will Hezbollah and Israel Go to War?

Hezbollah has been engaged in a low-level war with Israel to draw attention to the Gaza conflict, which has killed over 36,000 people. Both sides have evacuated border villages and traded attacks, with Israel using white phosphorus on Lebanese villages while Hezbollah employs drones, missiles and other weapons against Israeli military sites. Last week, attacks intensified as US President Joe Biden called for an end to the Gaza fighting.

Hezbollah, a Shia group backed by Iran, was originally formed to oppose Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon from 1982-2000. The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah ended with the militant group surviving a major Israeli assault and emerging stronger.

While both sides have sought to avoid civilian casualties so far, Israel's leadership is issuing threats of strong retaliation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, some analysts doubt Israel will launch a full-scale invasion soon due to regional security challenges and potential damage to international relations.

Hezbollah's attacks aim to warn Israel against perceived gains from the Gaza operation. The group has stated it will cease hostilities if a Gaza ceasefire is reached, though Israel remains skeptical. Analysts expect further escalation as the sides jockey for negotiating leverage, with Hezbollah seeking to end the fighting on its terms.