Iran Ramps Up Missile and Drone Production During Ceasefire

War Timeline and Ceasefire Origins

The US-Israel military campaign against Iran began on February 28, with thousands of sorties conducted inside Iranian airspace by manned and unmanned aircraft operated by the US, Israel, and several regional countries. Iran's air defences have been degraded over five months of operations, though the IRGC and army have reported intercepting cruise missiles, MQ-9 and MQ-1 combat drones, and US Army "Lucas" one-way attack drones across southern Iran.

US media reports from June estimated Iran retained roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and about 40 percent of its drone arsenal. A memorandum of understanding signed that same month was suspended after it faltered, though diplomatic channels through Oman have remained active. The Trump administration has repeatedly cycled between threatening strikes on civilian infrastructure, including power plants and petrochemical facilities, and abruptly cancelling them while raising the prospect of a negotiated settlement.

Regional Flashpoints and Shipping Attacks

Despite the US pause on direct strikes, regional tensions have continued to escalate. Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen claimed a successful drone attack on Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, citing Saudi drone activity in Yemen's Saada and Hajjah governorates. An India-flagged cargo vessel was struck by an explosives-laden boat and began sinking approximately 13 nautical miles north of Hodeidah in the Red Sea; all 14 crew members were safely rescued, according to New Delhi.

Overnight explosions and a fire were observed in Kuwait near the Iraqi border, with unconfirmed reports suggesting Iranian drones struck a US military base. Kuwaiti authorities, US Central Command, and the IRGC have not issued official comments. On Monday, a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier sustained engine room damage from an unidentified projectile 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman.

In the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC has intercepted or turned back additional vessels since the June MoU collapsed, though some have been permitted passage. Iraq's Oil Ministry confirmed on Tuesday that tankers carrying Iraqi crude transited the northern route through Iranian territorial waters following coordination with Tehran.

What Lies Ahead

Negotiations continue through Omani and other intermediaries, with Washington indicating a Strait of Hormuz agreement may be imminent. However, Iran's military leadership has made clear that production and recovery operations have not paused. Kanani Moghaddam warned that even a US ground assault temporarily occupying southern Iranian islands would prove costly and would not permanently reopen the strait, asserting Iran's missile manufacturing capabilities are geographically dispersed beyond the reach of airstrikes. No official confirmation has emerged regarding the reported shipment of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air defence systems, which both China and Pakistan have denied.