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Strait of Hormuz oil-market crisis risk, expert warns — AI-generated representative image of an oil tanker transiting a narrow Gulf shipping lane, reflecting concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruptions and oil supply

Editorial Team

An international relations expert has warned that global oil markets may be moving toward “a very serious crisis” as reserves run down and ships fail to leave the Strait of Hormuz in time to replenish supplies—even as President Donald Trump publicly insists the strategic waterway is open and operating normally.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, and even short-lived disruptions or added transit costs can ripple quickly into fuel prices and inflation. The warning comes amid conflicting messages from Washington and Tehran about negotiations and shipping conditions, and as Congress weighs war-related funding and other administration requests. For more on the broader escalation dynamic, see Iran’s Plan to Strike Back Against the U.S..

Key developments

University of Illinois professor and author Nicholas Grossman told Greg Sargent that the world is edging closer to a potential oil-market crisis “because of reserves running down and the ships not leaving the [Strait of Hormuz] in time to replenish that.”
Trump has claimed the Strait of Hormuz is open and that there are no tolls, including in an all-caps post on Truth Social saying Iran had made clear to the United States that “everything was open,” according to the source material.
Trump also said last week there is a “deal” and that negotiations are producing positive results, but Iran issued a message disputing that characterization, according to the source material.
An Associated Press report cited by Fortune described the Strait of Hormuz as “open” but “mined, half-empty, and subject to tolls both sides say they might charge.”
After Trump’s Truth Social comments, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is selling oil using the U.S. dollar for the first time in decades.
Grossman argued that Trump’s difficulty is that his public claims do not align with “the facts on the ground,” particularly as economic pressures become visible to the public.

Context and background

Grossman’s comments came during a conversation with commentator Greg Sargent about the economic and political pressures surrounding the war and its spillover into energy markets. Grossman said the scale of supply-and-demand constraints makes it harder for leaders to manage perceptions when costs rise and inflation returns to levels not seen in several years—an outcome he attributed largely to the war’s knock-on effects.

In the same discussion, Sargent cited a Fox News segment pointing to a new poll that he said shows Trump’s approval rating is lower than former President Joe Biden’s was at any point during Biden’s presidency.

Related reading on shifting oil flows: Behind India’s Surge in Russian Oil Imports: The Role of Ambani.

Details and evidence

Grossman said the administration faces a credibility problem when public messaging clashes with observable economic conditions. He argued that while political leaders may be able to delay accountability through messaging or partisan debate, sustained price increases and inflation are harder for the public to ignore.

He also said Trump appeared “desperate” in trying to frame the situation as under control, contrasting it with what he described as Trump’s usual ability to change the subject or pressure others into repeating positive assessments.

On Capitol Hill, Grossman said Congress is working toward funding connected to the war alongside other Trump demands, but he questioned whether continued public support can be maintained if the economic effects deepen.

Current status and next steps

As of the latest remarks cited in the source material, Trump continues to maintain that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating without tolls, while other reporting referenced in the same material describes mining risks, reduced traffic, and possible tolls. Iran has also pushed back on Trump’s characterization of negotiations as producing a “deal.”

Congressional deliberations over funding are continuing, while analysts such as Grossman warn that if shipping disruptions and declining reserves persist, the resulting market strain could further affect prices and inflation. No additional official confirmation of an agreement or stabilized shipping conditions was provided in the source material.