Israel Resists Gaza Withdrawal Despite Hamas Disarmament Deal

Public Sentiment and Political Reality

Israeli public opinion remains overwhelmingly hardline toward Palestinians in Gaza. A May poll found that 82 percent of Jewish Israeli respondents supported the forcible expulsion of Palestinians from their homes in Gaza, while 56 percent backed expelling Palestinian citizens of Israel from their homes. Another poll one month later found that 64 percent of those surveyed believed there were "no innocents" among Palestinians in Gaza.

Many Israeli politicians, including government ministers, have publicly stated that illegal Jewish settlements, similar to those in the occupied West Bank, will soon be established in Gaza. Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, Israel has conducted a devastating military campaign that has killed more than 73,000 Palestinians and destroyed much of the enclave. Israel has killed over 1,200 Palestinians since the October 2025 ceasefire agreement alone, while repeatedly expanding the territory under its control in violation of that deal.

Analysts Assess Netanyahu's Calculus

US-Israeli pollster and consultant Dahlia Scheindlin said Netanyahu's considerations "have nothing to do with public trauma" from the October 7 attack and everything to do with politics. "He will care primarily, probably exclusively, about what his current coalition partners think," she said. Scheindlin suggested Netanyahu might attempt a symbolic repositioning of Israeli forces, perhaps withdrawing to positions agreed under the October 2025 ceasefire, without committing to a full pullback.

Dov Waxman, professor of Israel studies at the University of California, Los Angeles, noted that Netanyahu "already faces an uphill battle in forming any government, more so if he agrees to this." Nimrod Goren, president of Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, was more direct: "I don't see him withdrawing from Gaza. It goes against his whole philosophy, ideology and worldview: that Israel needs to be present beyond its borders." Goren predicted Netanyahu would escalate rather than discuss withdrawal in the run-up to the election.

What Comes Next

The Israeli government has yet to issue an official statement on the disarmament agreement. One anonymous US official has said Trump would be "very, very disappointed" if Israel failed to adhere to the deal. Analysts expect Netanyahu, who has previously managed to sidestep similar requirements while maintaining coalition unity, will eventually have to break his silence. The opposition currently leads in many polls and may secure enough seats to form a government after the October elections.